Crisis What Crisis

Speaking as a middle-aged father of three I endorse this with every fiber of my being:

What’s the point of the midlife crisis? Not the actual experience, but the term. In the half-century since its coinage, “midlife crisis” has become a bloated catch-all thrown around reflexively to express our every unexamined bias, deep-seated fear and trite mockery regarding middle age. If we are going to understand our 40s in all their messy complication, we need to put the phrase behind us.

A 'midlife crisis' is not a thing. It does not exist. A 'midlife crisis' is a lot of Balding Boomer pants dropping. It's been happening since the 80's, when the Balding Boomers realized they were no longer hip and 'with it' and the kids were really into this disco thing and didn't want to hear yet another story about 'the 60's, man'.

Look, folks, I don't want to be 21 again.

I like being 43. I say this a year after getting a stent put in my heart and regular attacks of gout.

Youth is great, but after a while, being young gets kind of old.

Castro's Folly

Not bad, eh?

Dead Dictators

For reason's we need not get into, I have followed Canadian politics for about fifteen years now.

This time has seen the remarkable rise of one Pierre Justin Trudeau. The alleged son of former PM, and architect of modern Canada, Pierre Trudeau. Ah Pierre, now there was a great man:

His 'son' is a moron:

Members of the Asian-Canadian community are demanding an apology from Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, following his comments on Thursday expressing admiration for China's "basic dictatorship."

That's nothing. Via Small Dead Animals, checkout the official statement from the Prime Minister's office:

Good Christ.

let's take this to its logical conclusion:

-While controversial Pol Pot had visionary ideas on fighting urban sprawl.

-Say what you want about him, but thanks to Stalin there will never be overcrowding in Ukraine.

-Whatever Kim's other failings no one will ever be able to accuse North Korea of having an obesity crisis.

-Haile Mengitsu Mariam fought overcrowding in Eritrea.

-Though certain, ah....demographic groups were out of his favor, Hitler was one of the greatest dog enthusiasts of his time.

-While some found him controversial, Stalin was one of the most impressively mustached dictators of the 20th century.

-Sure Genghis Kahn killed millions, but think of the multi-cultural paradise he established in Samarkand.

-Hey, no Alexander the Great, no Hanuka, just saying.

Anywho...

This man-child, I swear I'm looking at Aston Kutcher sometimes, had risen improbably through Canadian politics, taking advantage of 'his' family name and the thin ranks of the Liberal Party decimated three times by the mild mannered Stephen Harper. He's never held a job.

Justin's mom, Margaret had an affair with Rolling Stones' guitarist Ron Woods. While Justin looks nothing like Pierre, there is a decent resemblance between Justin and Ron.

Not one goddamn word about President Trump, Canada. Not one goddamn word.

Referring Site of the Day

Apu's news:

www.currentsamachar.com

High Fidelity

Well, timing is everything.

Castro dies, World War 1990: Castro's Folly is at the printer.

Ironically, in Castro's Folly, most of the sympathetic characters are Cuban the brothers Caridad, one in Honduras, one in Angola, one at sea and another managing the defense of Guanajay Ridge. Don't worry, you'll see. Then there is the young political officer, Flavio, who is ore interested in baseball than Marxism, and the grim commander of Guanajay Ridge's air defenses, Major Evora.

This one was a lot of fun to write. No one has every done WWIII the way I have in Castro's Folly. New ground for sure.

I am going to be optimistic and anticipate release in early Jan.

Will's Good Idea for 11-27-16

General George Washington and his Fighting Continentals

The author has a masters in American Revolutionary Studies, and he's always found it Ironic that he has published very little on the matter. There is this piece, on British parliamentary opposition to King, originally published in History Magazine.

Anywho this book will argue that Washington was not fighting a 'war of posts' as some have written. Nor was he pursuing a 'Fabian Strategy' as have written others.

No, Washington wanted to fight and constantly sought out battle. In 1776  he fought several major engagements, Brooklyn Heights, Manhattan, Trenton, Princeton. In 1777 he followed these up with Brandywine and Germantown and finally, in 1778 Monmouth.

Washington lost more battles than he won. His key to victory was strategy. He kept an army in the field, in being and gradually wore down the British until help arrived.

There are some real characters in the Continental Army.  Nathanial Greene, 'the Fighting Quaker'. Lord Stirling the swashbuckling division commander. Henry Knox, the bookseller who had read on tactics and was therefore put in charge of the artillery.

Major chapters will include discussions about the militia (very underrated), the guerrilla war in the south (Mel Gibson was right in a lot of ways) and the British war effort.

This thing is a go.

Referring Site of the Day

Some guy named Bob and his shows.

bobdutkoshow.blogspot.com

Friday updates

Plugging along on Pacific Storm, 10,000.

Jake and Patricia 35,000 and counting.

No word from the agent.

Or not good word anyway.

Fire on the (Israel) Mountain

Israel Strikes and War of the Red Sea feature a lot of terrorism against Israel.

Well, beginning yesterday terrorists have lit a series of fires across the nation causing several great conflagrations. While the fires are definitely terrorist arson it is unclear how much of this is a coordinated effort and how much is the work of copycats.

From a terrorism standpoint this move makes a lot of sense. After all Israel can shoot down any incoming rocket it wants. Attacking an Israeli school will get the jihadist a quick ticket to his 72 virgins. Israel teachers pack heat.

In Ian Slater's WWIII series (don't bother folks its not very good), KGB agents set Forrest fires in the United States.

I never had Hezbollah or Hamas do that in my books.

Which brings us to the next question, when will I wrap up the Israel Strikes series. War of the Red Sea ends with Shmuley Rosenzweig taking a dirty bomb from Quds Force commandos and walking back to his car.

Honestly I don't know.

When I was wrapping up War of the Red Sea I had a vague sense that the next fight would be with Egypt. But the Brotherhood is out of power at the nation is firmly in the hands of the army. They even had a referendum. As it happens my lovely and talented editor is married to an Egyptian man. He voted for al Sisi.

Turkey? I dunno. Again we see thawing relations between Hebrew and Turk.

So I dunno.

I thought War of the Red Sea was innovative in that it put the Israelis in a situation we don't often see them in. That is a naval conflict with a mini-amphibious invasion of Sudan. It was fun to write, that's for sure.

I don't really see the point of another mano-a-mano slug fest between the IDF and another nation. Besides, who's left?

I'm open to suggestions.

Donald Trunmp Says the Media Sucks

So yesterday Donald Trump assembled the media in Trump Tower and berated them. Good.

“It was like a f–ing firing squad,” one source said of the encounter.

Too bad it wasn't just 'like' a firing squad.

Here is yet another article, this one at The Atlantic, about why the media sucks. Basically the media is run and staffed by ambitious young women, preening beta male college boys and homosexuals.

This is of course a transition (pun intended) from the old style media of coffee drinking, cigarette smoking, donut eating fat guys.

When I worked at the Wesley College Whetstone the paper was run by a guy like that. He was a 30 year old army and air force vet who loved news. God he might as well have been my father. 30 years old!

When I worked at CNN Inside Politics the office was filled with young women hired by the middle aged director. Ok not everyone was young. Ahhhh Sasha Johnson. She was cute, athletic etc. She once inadvertently flashed me, getting out of a cab, a moment I will take to my grave.  I never liked Kate Albright-Hanna or my boss Jane Caplan. Bear in mind the later, while writing on gun control, used to work for the Brady Campaign. Interestingly we were all about the same age. The difference was these were up and coming go-getters, I was some dumb schlub brought in to do scutt work, like run to FEC and get the list of contributions to the Elizabeth Dole campaign. I was less important than the interns.

For a while the polling director took me under his wing. Nice man, very smart, and a baseball fanatic as all good pollsters should be. Thank you, Keating Holland.

My father worked at NBC Nightly News from 1968 till 2005. He was one of the guys you could see in the newsroom behind Tom Borkow. There he is, right over Tom Brokow's shoulder:

My sister and I used to like to call him up during the broadcast and try to get him to scratch his ear or something. He wouldn't.

He saw the transition first hand. By the time my old man left the office was filled by hyper-educated young professionals who worked out during lunch and didn't expect to have to work after hours. These were hyper-successful fastidious types. As me old man said, 'I remember when we used to stub out our cigarettes on the newsroom floor and now I have to go outside to smoke.'

So President-Elect Trump is dead on hear. Don't be nice to them. Don't treat them with respect. They'e the enemy.

BTW, lots of media badmouthing in Israel Strikes: War of the Red Sea. There's a character named Martin, based on the terrorist sympathizer, misogynist, homosexual Martin Bashir.

Politics and Art

So Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, he got booed and then the cast cluttered up the stage and made some big, self important statement.

Yawn...you're really not that important guys.

We all have opinions and they seep into your art regardless. Some people make political art and its brilliant. All in the Family was certainly political art and brilliant. It had a certain honesty to it and even challenged its own beliefs. Family Ties was not expressly political though a running gag was hippy parents   Steve and Elise Keaton raising a Reagan-ite conservative son, Alex. Not once was Alex mocked or made to be the bad guy. Heck, the only political mocking occurred when Steve and Elise tried to revive their old hippy lives; Elise singing folk songs to an indifferent audience or Steven;s disastrous production of his 60's era play, and I swear I'm not making this up, 'A Draft Card for the Burning'.

As noted above, we can't keep politics out of our art even if we try. I don't try. My last novel To Survive the Earth, is the most political thing I've ever written. You know who Sarah Jane Wayne is, right? And yes, I think women with guns is hot.

That said, I've always worked hard to keep blatant political bias out of my books. Democrats like thrillers and alt-history two. This is a review of Operation Arctic Storm:

I was leery when I first saw this book because I thought it was going to be another one of those teabagger right wing fantasies where Democrats, Muslims and other minorities are bad and only the white GOP has any common sense and guts to prosecute a war against the Russians, but to my surprise this author has decided to forego all that right wing junk that permeates novels like this and concentrate on telling a great story.

That would have been too easy

Will's Good idea for the week of 11-20-16

The Bastard

A novel about William the Bastard's conquest and subsequent rule over England.

We would begin in 1066 on the Battlefield at Hastings. This would be the book's first act. Form there we would cover the crisis years from 1067 till about 1072 where William turned back multiple threats from King Harold's brothers, the Norseman and King Malcolm of Scotland. Finally William's last years where he consolidated control till his death in 1087, leaving England a part of Europe with a Norman nobility in charge.

Damn, I like this one.

Friday Updates

Allll....rigggght....!

Finally feel like I got some momentum here, the wind at my back, so to speak.

Castro's Folly finally submitted. I'm thinking January. We'll see.

Whatever Happened to Jake and Patricia Bloom has reached 30,000 words. Still hoping for a rough by the end of the year. We'l see.

Operation Pacific Storm, 5,000 words this week maybe this summer. We'll see.

How you got Trumped

The estimable Sean Trende writes a great analysis. Go read it.

Two salient points I think.

First, stop thinking that you've figured out politics that you have the winning formula. Politics never changes. Every four years you start at zero and have to get to 270 Electoral Votes. It's a 50/50 country, and usually is. Americans aren't prone to great political swings one way or the other and are inclined to split the difference.

Bottom line, the only difference between FDR and Reagan are small details.

Second, he goes into John Judis and Roy Texiera's The Emerging Democratic Majority, written in 2002. This is pretty much where the whole demography and destiny argument began. I vividly recall reading it and thinking, 'Oh crap.' Well how's that working out for the Dems?

I've got a counter to the Demo is Dest theory. Demography is destiny, but the Dems have reversed it. All these hipster douche-nozzle's rioting for safe spaces and safety pins, how many kids do they have? How many are they gonna have?

Me, I have three adorable little girls.

Any questions?

Referring Site of the Day

Cheese Eater Edition.

www.over-blog.com

Merci!

Wednesday Q&A With Will Stroock

Post Election Trump Edition

Q: How did you get the election so right?
WTS: I payed attention.

Q: Are you always right about elections?
WTS: Generally speaking, yes I am always right about elections. But I blew it big time in 2012.

Q: Are you a member of the Alt-Right?
WTS: No.

Q: What is the Alt-Right?
WTS I have no idea.

Q: C'mon.
WTS: I guess one could say its a lose amalgam of old time conservatives, Buchananites, Perotistas and some of the new Red Pill, Gamer-Gate types. See Milo, Vox Day, Mike Cernovitch.

Q: Ok, I guess.
WTS; Right.

Q: If you aren't in the Alt-right, what are you in?
WTS: The international Neo-Con conspiracy.

Q: What the hell is that?
WTS: We're the ones who subscribe(d) to the Weekly Standard. We have all these neat policy ideas. Also we supported invading Iraq as the first step toward winning the war on terror. Also we support Israel.

Q: Have you changed your mind on any of this?
WTS: Absolutely not.

Q: Iraq?
WTS: What, you think the world is better with Saddam Hussein in it?

Q: But the war, the money, the casualties.
WTS: That's war, boy.

Q: Chickenhawk.
WTS: Call me that again I'll fuck you up and cock slap your face.

Q: Really?
WTS: Try me, motherfucker. I'm 6-0 and displacing about 240 lbs. Anytime, bitch.

Q: Getting back to Neo-conservatism...
WTS: Please.

Q: Why are so many Neo-Cons Jewish?
WTS: Because of the international Jewish cabal secretly runs things. Also the Queen, the Colonel, the Gettys...

Q: No seriously.
WTS: I dunno.

Q: If you're a Neo-Con why did you support Donald Trump?
WTS: Mr. Trump is not Hillary. Also, he's our first Jewish president.

Q: What?
WTS: His mannerisms, his work life, his family, everything about him says 'How you doing Maury? Give me a bagel and a schmeer'.

Q:Wrapping up...
WTS: Thank god.

Q: Ah, yes.  What do you think Hillary is doing now?
WTS: Her Majesty? Plotting her 2020 presidential run.

Q: Seriously?
WTS: What else is she going to do?

Q: You think she can win?
WTS: She won't even get the nomination.

Q: Why not.
WTS: Pretty hard to do when your dead. Even for a Democrat.

Q: Huh?
WTS: If the Parkinson's doesn't get her, the STD will.

Q: You're a mean bastard.
WTS: I'm sorry, I thought you knew.

Cabinet Trumped

So far I like Mr. Trump's first two picks, Bannon as a top strategist, Preibus as chief of staff. Bannon is Trump's contact with the Alt-Right, Preibus is his man on the ground dealing with the GOP and the Establishment.

Smart and shrewd.

It's always fun to piece a cabinet together on paper, so lets get started.

Press Secretary: Laura Ingram, looks like they're headed in that direction, she'll understand the people facing her every morning are a nest of vipers. Traitors, communists, pederasts and perverts. Every last one of them should be locked up and given the Admer Luima treatment. Fuck them.

Secretary of State: Newt Gingrich. Newt is deeply flawed but really smart and I think this post would be perfect for a man of his knowledge and intellect.

Secretary of Defense: Mitt Romney. The DoD needs a turn-around artist, someone with vast experience working with large organizations. That's Mitt.

Secretary of the Treasury: Steve Mnuchin. Trump's finance chair and a former bigwig at Goldman-Sachs. Besides, one always wants a Jew handling the money.

Attorney General: Christ Christie. Tempting to make him Sec State, for the Fuck You factor if for no other reason, but the man was a U.S. Attorney.

FBI Director: Rudy Giuliani. The man is a goddamn national treasure and an experienced law enforcement official.

Secretary of Education: Dr. Ben Carson.

Secretary of the Interior: Sarah Palin. The westerners will love it, as will the cattle, farm and fracking people. She was the governor of Alaska after all. Frankly, the Fuck You potential is just to great to pass up.

Director of Health and Human Services: Not sure about a specific person, but I'd find someone who runs a hospital system. My wife could do this, she's a pill pusher.

Secretary of Energy: T. Boone Pickens.

Director of Homeland Security: Sheriff Joe Arpaio. He's looking for a gig.

Ambassador to the UN: Bobby Jindal. Former governor, smart as a whip, and I want to start work on the Indian community as a GOP constituency.

10 Years Gone

The title's a Zeppelin reference, of course...

There come times in a man's life when it appropriate to ponder and take stake.

This is one of those times.

Not because of the election, though.

Last night my daughter slept for the first time in her own room. Yesterday morning the furniture arrived. The day before I did some touch ups on the wall, having painted her room purple the weekend before.

Now, it was about this time ten years ago that I first painted that room. When Mrs. Stroock and I moved in, the room was a kind of brown/beige and she used it as her home office. With the impending arrival of our first child we converted it into a nursery. I painted the room a kind of light green, chosen by Mrs. Stroock of course. Me dad came down and assembled the crib.

Heh, yesterday I took that crib apart.

Ten years ago...I was 33. I had just really begun my writing career. I'd just had the lead piece in Strategy & Tactics #238 and #240 (Marlborough in the first and 1066 in the second). A Line through the Desert was freshly completed and being submitted to publishers. What a sucker I was.

My man W was president. We wondered if the Iraq Campaign could be won. The Dems, treasonous bastards all, had just taken control of congress. The term 'The Surge' was floating around Washington.

On a personal note my hair came down to my shoulders. I could play guitar but not much and not well. Certainly I couldn't shred the way I do daily now. I was a semi-permanent sub at Bernards High. My love affair with AC/DC was in high gear. I weigh less now than a did then.

Ten years gone, 90 magazine articles, eight novels one PRS guitar and three daughters later...


--Can't wait for the new Arrival movie. Of course 'Arrival' is a term used liberally in To Defend the Earth and To Survive the Earth. Coincidence? I think not. Legal Council has been retained.

Will's Good Idea for the week of 11-13-16

Middle East War 1995

SPOILER ALERTS below, so if you don't want to know how the Third World War ends, you know what to do...

The year is 1995.

The Third World War is over and the United States has won.

The Soviet Union is wracked by civil war in the north and and Islamic secessionist movement in the Caucasus. Gorbachev tries to hold things together, while Yeltsin wonders if it would not be best of the USSR were dissolved.

President Quayle ponders his reelection campaign.

Saddam is lord and master over much of the Middle East,having invaded Kuwait, later seized the Saudi oil fields, and renewed the war with Iran and won.

Of course, there's one last target that can not only make Saddam undisputed emir of the region, but a hero of the Arab world, Israel...

You've been Stroocked

Yeah, I got it right. I saw the signs, yes, I saw the signs.

I honestly don't understand why so many people are stunned by Mr. Trump's victory.

Let's take this number by number, real slow, so that even a J-school trained media stenographer of the kind working at the Times or the Post can understand it.

1-There were plenty of polls that showed the following:

1.1- Trump locked up Ohio. He locked up Florida. By the last week Mr. Trump was campaigning in PA, MI, WI, and Minnesota. None of these states had gone GOP since the 80's. Minne-frakin-sota!

1.2-We've had five major elections in the western world in the last few years: the US midterms, Israel, Canada, Britain and Brexit. In four out of five of those races polls consistently underestimated conservative turnout. The one exception was Canada. Why Canada? Because there was no social cost for supporting Prime Minister Zoolander.

2- You need three things to win. Circumstances, candidates and ideas (thanks Rush).

2.1- Well, the circumstances for Hillary! were terrible, weren't they? The economy stinks. Our foreign policy is a wreck and it is really, really hard to replace an incumbent in your own party.

2.2 - Hillary! had all the charisma of a damp rag (to borrow from Mr. Farrage) and a low grade bank clerk, (to borrow from Mr. Farrage again).  She was a horrible candidate. She's Bobdole without the Viagra.

2.3 - Hillary! had no ideas. Hillary!'s idea was Hillary!

3- We all got Trumped

3.1 He had circumstances.

3.2- He had a couple of very sloganable ideas.

3.3- He turned into a good candidate. He was fun and exciting.

4.0 Anecdotal

4.1- You could feel it. You could see the Trump stickers and the Trump yards signs. They were everywhere.

4.2- He packed them in, everywhere he filled arenas.

4.3- This made for a vast enthusiasm gap.

5 Trump was underestimated

5.1 He vanquished the best slate of candidates the GOP has fielded in a generation. Ted Cruz is picking up Trump's dry cleaning. Rubio wants to know what time his cheerleader wife should be at Trump's suite, and Jeb Bush's political skull is being used as an ashtray for Mr. Trump's victory cigars.

5.2 Yet still the Dems underestimated him. Morons.

You all listened to a bunch of number-crunchers with a lot of high-falootin degrees analyzing distributions and regression lines; I don't even know what that is. Old Washington hands assured us that is was over when the tapes came out (I'm looking at you, Chuck Todd, who I'm pretty sure interviewed me for a job at Roll Call in 2000). Mike Murphy and Bob Shrum assured us all Hillary! was gonna win. Check the resume's of those two clowns, see what they ever won.

Meanwhile, me with my on-line degrees, my little free blog,  and my self-published books, saw what they couldn't.

Bow down. Bow down before me. Not because I have the sight, the clairvoyance, or even the Force. Bow down because I opened my freaking eyes.

Jerks.

Friday Updates

The work week was a bit slow, as one might imagine.

Rejections galore for Pershing in Command.

We will be sending the Castro's Folly MS to the publisher on Monday.

Jake and Patricia Bloom making good progress and am still anticipating a rough draft by the end of the year.

The Final Storm is done except for a few details here and there.

Dark Mornings

On a dark morning in 2012 I woke up. It s 4:30 and cold. I was proud if myself. After months of fretting about the election I managed to shut everything down the previous evening and ignore the returns. I watch Get Carter and then the big Bang Theory. Lights out at 10:30.

I staggered downstairs to the my laptop in the dinning room. I swear the floor was still so cold because the house hadn't managed to reheat itself after Sandy, we'd lost power for four days. The night before I set my computer to Drudge, I wanted him to tell me the result.

I tapped the keyboard and saw the Liberty Bell. Drudge's headline proclaimed 'Divided Nation'. I thought, 'God, its come down to PA and the results there are being contested.' A quick scroll down revealed the truth. I groaned and went back upstairs and consoled myself with our new baby Ella, born a week before Sandy.

This year I woke up at 3:30 AM, staggered downstairs to the living room couch where I keep my computer. I went right to Drudge and saw a pic of Hillary and thought 'ahhhh fuck'. Then I scrolled down and saw the cover of the New York Post. I went over to Breitbart for confirmation. It was like watching Phil Mckonkey's end zone deflection catch, Scott Norwood's 'wide right', Plaxico Burris catching that last second touchdown, or Eli Manning hitting Mario Manningham.

Giddy, I ran upstairs, past the 4 year old's room and into the bedroom. I scared my wife to death. She thought there was a fire.

Rejoice, rejoice.

Beware the Silver Svengali

Every election has its Svengali, its schwamie who can look at the data and predict what will happen.

This year it was Nate Silver at 538. I never paid him much attention, though I admit he called 2012 on the dot. Most of my liberal friends check him daily to see that 'everything was all right'. Well he blew it. He shouldn't feel bad, he's not the first.

After the '96 election the best pollster was John Zogby. He nailed the vote percentages that year and picked up Gore's last minute movement in 2000. Then he wrecked himself in 2004, waiting till 5 PM on election night to make his predictions, after the exit poll data came in. That data was deeply flawed. Zogby predicted Jean Francois Kerry (A-hole, France) would win 390 electoral votes. He didn't.

The big winner in 2004 was Scott Rasmussen, who became something of a cult leader among us poll watchers. I was the leader of that cult. He nailed the 2002 off years, 2004, 2006, and 2008 (which was easy) and 2010. He was dead last in 2012 and was ousted by his own board.

So now Nate Silver goes down. I guess the IBD Poll is the new Svengali. I wonder how they'll get it wrong in 2020.

I Hate to Say it....

....No I don't.

I. Told. You. So.

Rush Limbaugh taught me that ideas matter. You need two other things, circumstances and candidates.

The circumstances for Hillary! were awful. As noted again and again here, it is hard to replace the sitting president of your own party. The economy stinks. Our foreign policy stinks. Perhaps the most important factor, every serious candidate has a year. Hillary!'s was 2008 and she blew it.

Hillary! didn't have any ideas.

Mr. Trump [that's President-Elect Trump-ed] had ideas. Build a wall and make Mexico pay for it, make America great again. This was certainly his year. Was he a good candidate? He certainly was as the campaign went on.

Then I saw the rallies. The lines of people waiting to get in, the frenzied crowds. I had friends who never gave a damn about politics who loved Donald Trump. He tapped into something. I didn't feel what a lot of the Trump people felt. I'm not even sure if I like it, but I saw it and Trump did too.

The enthusiasm gap was massive. Nobody actually likes Hillary!

Then cam polls showing FL and OH locked up with MI and PA in contention. During the last week the battle was in blue territory not red.

The Bradley Effect was in full force, polls underestimated Mr. Trump's support by at least a few points. I never for one goddamn minute believed these polls that showed Hillary! winning in a rout. ABC-WAPO had her 12 points ahead, which was silly. The outliers, led by the LA Times, Rasmussen and IBD all which track everyday, picked up what I felt.

On Monday last week I said Mr. Trump was gong to win.

I was right.

Elections Past

Tonight I'm going to binge watch something.

I hate watching the coverage, its more nerve racking than when the Giants are in the Superbowl. I hate that too, by the way.

It's kind of a tradition with me now, partly by design, partly by happenstance.

My first election was 1988. Realizing that my guy was going to get clobbered, I watched Fast Times at Ridgemont High instead. I hadn't seen it yet.

In 1992 I voted for Bill by absentee ballot but didn't get see the returns. I had drama rehearsal. I was Cradeau in No Exit and the performance date was looming. When I left Bill had won NH, by the time I got back to my dorm room three and half hours later it was all over.

In 1996 I drove home 300 miles to vote for Bobdole for some reason. There was little suspense of course, and I had a term paper to work on anyway.

2000....2000, living in Northern Virginia with my wife I was riveted to the TV all night after coming home from dinner. Bush was up 51-3 at first, then the networks in succession called FL, PA, and MI for Algore. It was at that point I retired to my study, put on Mendelssohn's Overture Hebrides and had a stiff drink. Then with 50% of the vote in and Bush leading by 250K the networks threw FL into the tossup section. It was long night, as one by one the rest of the states went for Bush. Finally sometime late they called FL for W. I went to bed happy. When I woke up....

In 2004 I tried to ignore election night but failed. It was actually fun, with Fox News in the background and me on my computer bouncing from one secretary of state website to the next following the returns. Bush won FL impressively and put the nail in Kerry's coffin in OH. What an asshole. A long, fun fulfilling night.

Not much to see in 2008. I worked in my study and periodically checked in on RCP. At 11, when the networks called it, I was pissed because Fox-5 showed election coverage. I wanted to watch The Office.

In 2012, having made a nervous wreck of myself, I watched Get Carter (the Michael Caine version) and went to bed at 10:30. It was all over by then, but I didn't know until I woke up at 4:30 and checked the Drudge report. It wasn't so bad. I had a new book coming out and, by the way, a new baby.

In these things I took solace for a broken heart.

Election day Cometh forsooth

I don't really have anything interesting to say on the matter or any special insight.

My sense is this: Mr. Trump peaked at the right time and then surged. He seems to have locked up Fl and OH, IA and NH and has Clinton fighting like mad for PA and MI. If Mr. Trump wins either state then its all over.

Facts:

Early voting totals, once thought to be one of Hillary!'s strengths, now look very good for Mr. Trump.

It seems Mr. Trump is getting about 19 percent of the black vote.

Mr. Trump seems to be doing no worse with Hispanics than Romney.

Via the IBD poll yesterday, it seems Mr. Trump has picked up a lot of female support (there's a joke in there someplace).

As in British parliamentary elections, the Brexit Vote and the Israeli elections, the press and pollsters have underestimated the conservative vote by a couple of points.

The Trump people are really, really motivated.

It is hard to replace the sitting president in your own party, ask Nixon or Algore.

Its a change election. Hillary isn't change.

The economy stinks.

Our foreign policy is a disaster.

At some point, people just want something new, and it doesn't matter how flowed the opposition candidate is. Just ask Bill Clinton.

For these reasons I think Mr. Trump win decently with no election night drama.

We'll see.

(Not) Metal Monday

Working on Whatever Happened to Jake and Patricia Bloom, or whatever its called, I've thrown in a lot of early 90's music. Its a myth to say metal was dead and Nirvana killed it. Metal wasn't dead, but it sure was dying. By then me and my frat brothers listened to Peal Jam all the time. Alice and Chains and the Gin Blossoms were big. Just hearing the later takes me back to that ratty apartment that served as party HQ.

Anywho, Patricia is a big U2 fan and I have her listening to a lot of Achtung Baby. That album was the soundtrack to my first semester, Freshman year, '92. Ahhhh....

Interestingly, thinking of the album brings to mind a lot of purples and maroons, dark, a lot of dark late autumn sunsets, the soundtrack of Thanksgiving and Xmas break drives home. When I think of Achtung Baby I don't think of the music but the colors.

As far as the music, it combines U2's early 80's rock sound with early 90's dance pop. It sounds horrific but the result is astounding. There is nothing like Achtung Baby. Mysterious Ways was the big hit, and then One, and Wild Horses. So Cruel was always a big one for me. I always thought of the girl Patricia Wallace is based on. She knows who she is, I guess. Bono is a deep, emotional man with interesting things to say.

For me the album is unique to that time and will always accompany thoughts of it. Pleasant memories, really.

Ninety Four...

...That's how old my grandfather is today. He moves slow but he has his brains, lives with his second wife in Manhattan. Heck, the doctor told him a few years ago that he's too old to get Alzheimers. He swore if he hit 80 he'd star smoking again (he had a pipe). Alas, noway. 

Now, to appreciate how remarkable the old bastard reaching 94 is, remember this.

He was born in 1922. He was a sickly asthmatic little boy when that killed people. He actually had to lie his way into the army during WWII. The old bastard remembers life without antibiotics for chirst sake.

Here's some other things he remembers:

-the Weimer Republic

-people who fought in the Civil War

-people who remembered people born in the 18th century

-the George Washington Bridge and Lincoln Tunnel being built

-Babe Ruth (he was out there in the right field bleachers)

-US History in one section rather than US-I and US-II

Trumpsuaded

This is a persuasion election as Dilbert's Scot Adams likes to say.

That seems obvious but it isn't really.

2012, 2004 and 2000 were turnout elections. The GOP didn't understand that in 2000 and lost it inthe last week. They figured it out in 2004, upping their vote total by 20% and blew it 2012.

2008 and '96 were cooked. The circumstances absolutely favored the guy who won. Ditto 84 which was a coronation for Reagan.

I'm not quite sure where 88 fits into all this.

The last persuasion election I recall was 1980. There, Reagan had to persuade America that he was a viable alternative it Carter. He did in the last week.

Something similar has happened here with Trump. By my reconing he already has 270 (with NH, NV turning red) and the battle is in PA, MI and and CO. I strongly suspect he will win PA and MI.

We'll see of course.

These are my new year's predictions:

-Hillary Clinton will not be the Democrat Party nominee for President
-She will drop out of the race and site 'health reasons'
-Chelsea Clinton will lay the groundwork for running for office in New York State, possibly as the successor to Senator Charles Schummer
-Joe Biden will be the Democrat Party nominee for President
-Marco Rubio will be the next President of the United States
-Governor Nikki Haley will be the next Vice President of the United States
-Israel and Hezbollah will fight ten years after the last fight
-The economy will slip into recession
-Justin Trudeau will become a laughing stock
-Vladimir Putin will take the measure of Trudeau and shift his emphasis to the Arctic
-Everywhere Social Justice Warriors will be on the defensive
-The New England Patriots will win the Superbowl
-The Washington Nationals will win the World Series.

Heh.

Friday Updates.

Nothing much to report.

The Final Storm is getting very close to being finished.

Castro's Folly is being edited.

Whatever Happened to Jake and Patricia Bloom is being written, though a bit slower than I like.

Time, Time, Time...and the Cubs

Things that existed the last time the Chicago Cubs won the World Series:

1-The Ottoman Empire
2-The Austrian Empire
3-The Czar of Russia
4-The British Raj
5-Trusts
6-Jim Crow
7-People who remembered veterans of the American Revolution
8-People who remembered an America without baseball
9-Civil War Veterans


Things that did not exist the last time the Chicago Cubs won the World Series:

1-Antibiotics
2-The NFL
3-NBC, CBS, ABC, BBC...
4-X-rays
5-The Interstate
6-Live baseballs
7- Air power
8-Voting women
9-Talkies!
10- Baseball west of the Mississippi

Up town Trump you up...up town Trump you up

Mr. Trump has outsmarted us all.

As I write this he has erased a 12 point deficit in the WaPo Poll and surged to a 7 point lead in NC, and a small lead in NH.  WI is now in play. So is PA. Is there any reason to think he won't surge ahead in say, CO? He's already locked up FL, OH, IA...

Hillary! is buying ads in blue states.

Now, there's been a lot of bumps and self inflicted wounds along the way. That said, Mr. Trump's overall plan as worked brilliantly. First we see bombastic Trumpism (which backfired in a few cases, of course), followed by a few simple ideas, build the wall and make Mexico pay for it, stop Muslim immigration, etc. Now, in the final weeks, policy specifics.

Another thing, Mr. Trump's ads about Hillary! have been devastatingly effective, tough, hard hitting. You could never say that about Mitt or McCain.

So what's Hillary's! endgame here? I suspect that she wants to cloud things so we can go to a contested election where her cronies in the courts will throw it to her.

It almost worked for Algore in 2000.

The good news is, unlike W., Trump will fight back, tooth, claw, hand grenade and flame thrower. Remember the second debate with the four women Bill assaulted and the 'You'd be in jail' remark?

That, too, is more than you could say about Mitt, McCain and even W.

And that is why he's winning.

Writing Women

Of course, I like to do more than write them....

Thanks folks, I'll be here all week.

Anywho, so a lot, most really, of Whatever Happened to Jake and Patricia Bloom focuses on Patricia.

I'm finding myself writing a lot about womanly-mother things. A lot of gals sitting around drinking wine and gabbing about shoes and OBGYNs and what not and whatever the hell else women talk about when we're off doing man-things. [for you man-things involves painting your little girl's room a lovely shade of lavender-ed].

I mean, I don't have to research this, right? I don't have to start posting questions on women's message boards about their preferred shampoo in 1994, do I? They're still human beings right? [yes, but they are different than you and I- ed].

Am I really qualified to write about the inner workers of a young to middle aged woman?

Crap, I need to give myself a pep-talk.

C'mon, Will. You've done the stay-at-home dad thing three times now . You've been to the playground with your gal pals, you've been over to their houses for play dates. Hell, you've even recommended an OBGYN. Remember how the man-police came by and gave you a talking to and confiscated your man-card?

And let us not forget all the daytime TV you've watched.

You know women, Will. You understand them. You know what they need...you know what they want, and you are an expert and fulfilling those needs, be they mental, emotional and of course, physical.

So man up, partner, and finish that scene where Patricia is sitting around the living room drinking wine and chain smoking while the gals talk about their army husbands.

Inshallah (Jake's back in Iraq).

Tuesday Tally

Operation Pacific Storm Edition

And we're off...Top Five Nations Involved in Operation Pacific Storm

1-Australia: A pair of brigades, SAS squadron, half a dozen destroyers, another half dozen subs. Squadron F-18s, Squadron F-111s. Also, its my universe and I don't think they ever sold off their carrier for scrap.

2-New Zealand: One battalion + SAS squadron, one squadron A-4 Skyhawks, three destroyers.

3-Singapore: Air element, naval landing element.

4-Vietnam: Boy, have they screwed up with that little maneuver against Clark, Subic and Hong Kong.

5-The sun will rise again and head west!

With respects to The Worlds Armies, Navies and Air Forces, ca-1991, three books purchased and a now defunct shopping mall in Yorktown Heights, NY.